There is an astrological predicament: Deuba becoming PM for the seventh time. He has already served five terms; two more terms to go. This has become a popular joke, cynicism, or even a criticism of Deuba.
In spite of astrological predictions as well as the Maoist insistence - to be appointed as the PM from the largest party under Article 76(3) - Deuba is refusing to hold the mantle, instead offering the same to his arch rival Mr. K. P. Sharma Oli. What’s wrong with him? What is wrong with a man who used to enter Baluwatar, only after consulting astrologers and sacrificing a kalo boka, is now declining to become the PM, even when it is being served on a silver platter?
Shy-Guy
This scribe’s first and, probably the last meeting, with Deuba was in 2000 when I arranged and accompanied an editor from The Economist, for an informal interview, at his rented bungalow at Thapathali. Overall, I found him to be a non-PR guy - shy of talking in public but very active in listening. We sat for 45 minutes, sipping black tea served in a Girija-style Nepali glass. During the interview, I was distracted by random hanging of baby Deuba’s laundered clothes, for open-air sun-drying. Simplicity was very much visible. Things may have changed by now.
Why is Deuba refusing to become the PM of Nepal?
As reported in the media, the NC and the UML are to share evenly the remaining tenure of the PM. Deuba is expected to become the PM only after Oli’s tenure. He could easily negotiate with Oli and take the mantle. Definitely, the grounds are/were in his favour. He is the president of the largest party in the House, Maoists too were insisting to activate Article 76(3); expecting to do anything and everything to prevent Oli from coming to power, and you have your man in the chair of the president. In spite of these plus points, he declined to take risks. Why is he doing that? Want to prove his astrologers wrong? Is it his frail health? Or an expression of “once bitten, twice shy” psyche? Oli can betray him any moment, the way he did it to Prachanda. How can he be sure that he will be handed the power?
Within the Nepali Congress, Deuba is known as a deal-maker. His stammering voice may not be audible or comprehensible, his style may be relaxed and laid-back, but he is a man who can pull the strings and make things happen. Remember, during the height of the Maoist war, originally, he was scheduled to attend a meeting in South Africa, he was stuck in Belgium, there was a heated debate in the Belgian parliament over the selling of arms to Nepal. The media lost track of him, only to have him spotted in Bangkok, presumed to be looking for a neutral venue to negotiate with the Maoists, something similar to what Sri Lankan officials did with the Tamils. Basically, he is a risk-taker. When it comes to the Maoists, he has a love-hate relationship, starting right from the submission of the 40-point demands to initiating dialogue with them.
The hero makes last entry
Deuba’s decline to become PM may be guided by a couple of factors. The first one, may be, he is pursuing a Bollywood movie-style strategy. That is, the hero makes the last entry. The hero is there, as a last resort, to clear up the mess. Having settled a score with Prachanda, Oli is in a jolly mood. On 15th Ashad, he did initiate the deal with dahi-chiura but he is here to chew falamko chiura. He won’t be sleeping in the bed of roses. He will be blamed for all the ills and shortcomings. In his departing speech, Prachanda has his ire directed at Oli and his follies. Indeed, he left with a soft corner for Deuba. With Article 76(3) as a safety cushion and the President behind, Oli may be de jure PM, Deuba is becoming de facto PM.
Keep communists divided
The second strategy may be to keep cantankerous communists divided. After their astounding victory in 2017, didn’t Oli claim to keep Nepali Congress out of power for 50 years? With Oli in power and Prachanda accompanied by Mr. Madhav Kumar Nepal in permanent opposition, what can be sweeter music to Deuba than this? Even the ambitious party of brats (RSP) is now sidelined and kept to its size. It will, henceforth, be busy fighting enemies within.
Managing better-half
Third, more than half of Deuba’s criticism is rooted into the ambition of his better half. There might be a woman behind every successful man. I suppose this statement needs a bit of correction in the Nepali context: There is a woman behind the rise and fall of every man. Because of her aristocratic background, her academic excellence and glamour, her hawkish style and popularity, she has become a butt of criticism in the male-dominated Nepali politics. Remember, when she contested elections in 2017, she was defeated, in Deuba’s home ground, by a polygamist on International Women’s Day!
If Deuba is in power, it will be too difficult to accommodate her in the Cabinet. That could mean facing a barrage of attacks - both from within and outside the party. Already stupid characters are tweeting that she prevented him from becoming the PM. With Oli in power, no one really bothers about her status.
By the same reasoning, Deuba has also taken care of his nemesis. Since the demise of the G. P. Koirala, Koirala clans are in a low profile. Younger brats like Gagan Thapa and Biswo Prakash Sharma have turned speechless, after claiming the party to be in opposition till next general elections. They can wait till 2084 if they want to but the bus has left the station.