The longevity of the Dahal government is increasingly questioned
During his first parliamentary test in January 2023, PM Dahal secured 99% of the votes. He boasted this as a historical, unprecedented event in Nepali politics. During the second test in February 2023, it plummeted down to 64%. Now the figure stands at 59%. There is more of a puthal (downward movement) than an uthal (upward movement) in the vote of confidence.
In Nepali politics, Late PM Girija Prasad Koirala is renowned for creating uthal-puthals. Moreover, natural disasters, mishaps, accidents and political upheavals often happened during his tenure. He could be designated as Mister uthal-puthal prime minister. Instead, we have now a prime minister, openly coming up to take up the responsibility for uthal-puthals. The credit for coining this new nick-name in Nepali politics goes to Mr. C. K. Raut from Janamat Party. The term is far more attractive than palturam in Hindi or “the grass-hopper” in English.
On the eve of switching his alliance, Mister Prime Minister P. K. Dahal declared to his followers, “the great upheaval will continue till my last breath”. Someone corrected this statement in the X: “till my last breath” needs to be replaced by “during my life-time”. The PM went further saying his party does not stand like a stale pond, rather it flows like a great thundering river.
The Magic Number
The distinct features of uthal-puthal activities are that they are highly visible, audacious and the impacts far reaching and long lasting. In a way, chaos and uncertainty prevail. Let us take a look into some actual as well as potential uthal-puthals.
The first sign of uthal-puthal can be observed in the vote of confidence results. During his first parliamentary test in January 2023, PM Dahal secured 99% of the votes. He boasted this as a historical, unprecedented event in Nepali politics. During the second test in February 2023, it plummeted down to 64%. Now the figure stands at 59%. There is more of a puthal (downward movement) than an uthal (upward movement) in the vote of confidence. Even before the votes were officially counted inside the parliament, the cracks were visible. Mr. Rajendra Panday from CPN-US has already warned that they might reconsider their vote during the upcoming budget session. So far, the PM has survived on numerical games but the trust deficit is not only gaping wide it is getting deeper as well. Overnight an eight-point agreement got reduced to seven points. Amid trust deficit, the longevity of the Dahal government is increasingly questioned. Metmani Chaudhary from CPN-US has predicted the longevity of this government to be a maximum of one month.
The second sign of uthal-puthals can be seen in provincial governments. Three provincial administrative chiefs have been unceremoniously sacked just to be replaced by someone close to the new alliance. The provincial governments too are undergoing possible shake ups. With abrupt change at the federal alliance, they are now in an awkward situation - whether to resign or stay put and face the music.
The uthal-puthals within the bureaucracy and security sector can be taken as a normal activity that goes up with every government shake-up. The proposals are underway to recall half a dozen ambassadors, to be replaced by political cronies. The media has reported that the chief secretary too is under the scanner of the CIAA. There will be another round of purge in the administration, with the possible change in the leadership of the bureaucracy.
PM Dahal’s uthal-puthal is very much visible within the Nagarik Unmukti Party. Who knows the party, led by a spouse duo, may end up in a formal divorce? So far, its party president, Mrs Ranjeeta Shrestha, has assured the public that party affairs will not interfere with family matters. Soon one can expect uthal-puthals within smaller political parties. PM Dahal himself has claimed his move to be a blessing in disguise to the Nepali Congress Party. The cantankerous party is now in unity at an unprecedented level because of his move. Couldn’t this be an uthal-puthal of a different kind?
The master behind this new political alliance, Mr. KP Sharma Oli seems to be the other person in a state of uthal-puthal. He is visibly irritated by media reporting on possible power-sharing between three communist leaders, namely, Dahal, Oli and Nepal - each sharing premiership for 15 months, of the remaining 45 months of tenure. That must be the reason for dispatching junior leaders in Dahal’s Cabinet. With a vice chairmanship in the upper house, Makune seems to have extracted the most. And it is the same party issuing an ultimatum if Dahal fails to deliver properly in the coming days.
Another round of uthal-puthal can be observed in postponement and shifting of the venue of the much acclaimed international Buddhist gathering, expected to take place in Lumbini - the birthplace of Lord Buddha. The gathering was supposed to be participated by luminaries holding the Nobel Peace Prize. There can be uthal-puthals in the proposed government’s investment summit, scheduled April 28-29. The summit may go ahead as usual but the organizers must be in a state of panic. The World Bank officials in Kathmandu, seeking to launch a high level conference on international development, to be participated by the representatives from 92 countries, scheduled in the third week of June, must be in a state of panic due to the unfolding political events in Nepal.
PM Dahal’s uthal-puthal will be at a grandest scale when all political parties which he betrayed in the past, in one form or the other, start to unite to topple him. Though this is a remote possibility, it will be the last straw in the back of a camel. Remember, Mr. Rajendra Lingden, RPP president said, “let it not be the last mistake for Comrade Prachanda.”
