Oli prepares to assume premiership as PM Dahal gambles on trust vote with just 63 votes in hand

Experts say constitution won't acknowledge Oli as PM if Article 76(3) is invoked

KATHMANDU, July 12: Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal is expecting a formidable challenge to secure a vote of confidence in parliament as he commands less than half of the votes required to secure a majority in the parliament to lead the government.

Following the withdrawal of support by the CPN-UML, PM Dahal finds himself in the minority and is gearing up for a crucial parliamentary vote on Friday. However, it is evident that the prime minister will not garner even half of the required majority votes in his fifth attempt, given the steady decline in support he has received in the previous four parliamentary votes. As of now, he commands only 63 votes, far below the required 138 for a majority in the 275-member parliament.

Prime Minister Dahal is set to seek a vote of confidence as mandated by the constitution, following the withdrawal of support by coalition partners. The political landscape in Nepal shifted dramatically after the two largest parties in the parliament— Nepali Congress (NC) and the UML– forged an alliance to form a new government. This agreement was reached at midnight on July 1, leading to the UML withdrawing its support to Dahal's government on July 3.

Consequently, Dahal is compelled to seek a vote of confidence as per the Article 76 (2) of the constitution. Since then, PM Dahal's support base has remained unchanged. It appears unlikely that he will garner more votes than what he currently commands in parliament. A Maoist Center leader indicated that he expects to secure 32 votes from Maoist Center, 21 from RSP and 10 from the CPN (Unified Socialist).

Despite reports suggesting Dahal is maneuvering to destabilize the coalition, efforts to garner more support seem minimal. Instead, he seems to be emphasizing on the constitutional provisions of Article 76(3) regarding government formation.

Initially receiving widespread support from almost all parties during his first vote of confidence, PM Dahal's backing dwindled subsequently. He secured 172 votes in the second attempt, followed by 157 votes in both the third and fourth trust votes.

However, for the fifth term, prospects look slim for Dahal as both the NC and the UML have firmly decided against supporting him. On Thursday, NC Chief Whip Ramesh Lekhak issued a whip to its MPs to vote against Dahal. Similarly, UML Chief Whip Mahesh Bartaula also issued instructions to vote against Dahal during the trust vote.

Additionally, several fringe parties including Janamat Party, Loktantrik Samajbadi Party (LSP), Nagarik Unmukti Party (NUP) have decided to withhold their support, aligning with the NC-UML alliance both at the center and in the provincial governments. The breakaway faction of the Janata Samajwadi Party, led by Upendra Yadav, has joined the opposition, along with the Loktantrik Samajbadi Party (LSP). Within the NUP, only Ranjita Shrestha remains in support of Dahal, while the other MPs have withdrawn their backing and even removed Shrestha as the party leader.

The Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP), too, has decided against giving a vote of confidence to Dahal's government.

On the other hand, the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) plans to support Dahal, who is also the chairman of Maoist Center. The RSP has scheduled a meeting on Friday morning to formalize its decision. The CPN (Unified Socialist), led by Madhav Nepal, has also pledged its support to Dahal, openly rejecting the NC-UML alliance.

The NC with 88 seats, UML with 79 (excluding Top Bahadur Rayamajhi who is suspended), JSP with 7, JSP Nepal with 5, Janamat Party with 6, LSP with 6, and NUP with 4 seats are in favor of the new alliance. Additionally, the RPP with 14 MPs seems positive towards the newly-formed alliance.

The Aam Janata Party and two independent MPs are also seen inclined towards the NC-UML alliance as of late. The Nepal Workers Peasants Party and Rastriya Janamorcha, each with one seat, also stand in favor of the new alliance.

During the first confidence vote on January 10, 2023, PM Dahal garnered strong support with 268 votes from various parties including the NC, UML, Rastriya Swatantra Party, CPN Unified Socialist, RPP, JSP, Janamat, LSP, NUP, Aam Janata Party, and independent lawmakers. However, Chitra Bahadur KC of Rastriya Janamorcha and Prem Suwal of Nepal Workers Peasants Party opposed with two votes. The NC, despite being the opposition party, voted in favor of Dahal.

On March 20, 2023, following the breakdown of the alliance between the UML and the Maoist Center due to the formation of alliance between Maoists and the NC, PM Dahal secured 172 votes. Supporting parties included the NC, Maoist Centre, RSP, Unified Socialist, RPP, JSP, Janamat, NUP, LSP, Rastriya Janamorcha, along with independent MPs Amresh Kumar Singh and Yogesh Mandal. There were 89 votes against dahal, with the UML and RPP voting in opposition, and one neutral vote from Prem Suwal of Nepal Workers Peasants Party.

Prime Minister Dahal sought a third vote of confidence on March 13, 2023, after forming a new alliance with UML following the rift with NC. He received 157 votes in his favor, with support from UML, Maoist Centre, RSP, JSP, NUP, Aam Janata Party, and Unified Socialist, along with independent MPs Amresh Kumar Singh and Yogendra Mandal.

On the opposing side, 110 votes were cast against the confidence motion. The NC, LSP, RPP, and Rastriya Janamorcha voted in opposition. The Nepal Workers Peasants Party, holding one vote, opted to abstain from voting.

Following the split of the JSP, PM Dahal secured 157 votes in favor during the fourth trust vote on May 21, 2023. Supporting the motion were the UML, Maoist Center, RSP, Unified Socialist, JSP, and Aam Janata Party lawmakers, all casting affirmative votes. Notably, there were no votes registered in opposition.

On the other hand, the NC, RPP, JSP, LSP, and Rastriya Janamorcha chose to abstain, advocating instead for the establishment of a parliamentary probe committee to investigate the misappropriation of cooperatives funds. One vote remained neutral during the confidence vote, which was cast by Prem Suwal of the Nepal Workers Peasants Party.

Oli prepares to assume premiership the same day as Dahal faces a confidence vote!

The Nepali Congress (NC) and the CPN-UML are gearing up to form a new government on Friday, with plans to appoint UML Chair KP Sharma Oli as the prime minister. This move comes as Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal is expected to fail in securing a vote of confidence in the House of Representatives scheduled for 11 AM as it appears unlikely that Dahal will achieve the requisite majority.

The timing of Oli's appointment depends on the duration of the confidence vote proceedings. A UML leader mentioned that the program might run from 2 PM to 2:30 PM, after which the Parliament Secretariat is expected to promptly inform the President's Office.

"As soon as the president summons parties to form a new government, preparations will be made to present the claim with a two-thirds majority," a UML leader said.

The UML and the NC are confident that President Paudel will summon the new government by Friday afternoon in accordance with Article 76 (2) of the Constitution of Nepal. Following this, UML Chairman Oli is set to submit his claim to form the government with a majority.

Both parties have already gathered the signatures of their MPs, garnering support from a total of 166 MPs, which is 17 seats short of a two-thirds majority in the 275-seat House of Representatives. The NC is actively seeking support from opposition parties to reach this threshold and the UML is optimistic about securing the necessary numbers to form the government.

"There is no obstacle to appointing chairman Oli as prime minister immediately if he claims to be the prime minister with a majority. And, comrade chair will become the prime minister tomorrow," said a UML leader.

However, experts suggest that if Article 76(3) is invoked, UML Chairman KP Sharma Oli will not be able to become the prime minister as his party is not the largest party.

Senior advocate Dr Chandra Kanta Gyawali said, “If Prime Minister Dahal fails to secure a vote of confidence, Article 76(3) of the Constitution will come into effect. When this happens, the president, as the custodian of the Constitution, must call for the formation of a new government under Article 76(3). According to this provision, the largest party in the House of Representatives, which is the Nepali Congress, will be invited to form the government.”

In this scenario, Sher Bahadur Deuba, the leader of the NC Parliamentary Party, would become the prime minister, as he has the constitutional right to do so. However, if Deuba decides not to take up this role and opts to support KP Sharma Oli instead, that is his prerogative.

The Constitution does not provide for KP Sharma Oli to become prime minister directly under Article 76(3). It only acknowledges the largest party's right to form the government. Therefore, the president must follow this constitutional guideline and invite the largest party to form the government.