KATHMANDU, Jan 5: While COVID-19 cases continue to decline, the daily positivity rate still stands above 10 percent, indicating that the transmission risk is still high in the country.
The World Health Organization (WHO) has said that the positivity rate should remain below five percent for at least two weeks to get the transmission under control, but Nepal’s average positivity rate from December 26, 2020 to January 4,2021 stands at 13.91 percent.
The 10-day data also shows that there is no sign of COVID-19 coming under control in the country, with the positivity rate hovering between five to 15 percent in each province. The data provided by the Ministry of Health and Population shows that the COVID-19 positivity rate is between 10 percent and 17 percent, with the lowest rate standing at five percent on Jan 3. However, the government did not release the data of Karnali Province on Jan 3.
Although the number of COVID-19 cases has been decreasing significantly in recent times, the positivity rate is still high, showing the risk of transmission still remains “too high” in Nepal.
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“With protests erupting across the country after the latest political developments, the rate of COVID-19 transmission is surely going to increase after some time. With the positivity rate above 10 percent, the risk of transmission is still high,” said Sher Bahadur Pun, a virologist at the Shukraraj Tropical and Infectious Disease Hospital, Teku, Kathmandu.
In the last 10 days, the positivity rate stood at 18.22 percent in Sudur Paschim Province – the highest among all seven provinces. Likewise, Karnali Province had the lowest positivity rate of 6.22 percent. However, the Ministry of Health and Population did not provide the data of four days – Dec 26, 27, 30, and Jan 2.
Likewise, the positivity rate of Province 1 stood at nine percent, and those of Province 2, Gandaki, Bagmati and Lumbini provinces stood at 7.34, 10.22, 9.88, and 14.66 percent, respectively.
Meanwhile, public health experts also say that the COVID-19 data provided by the health ministry is deceptive. “The number of tests conducted is high on some days, but it is quite low on other days. There is no consistency, so it has been difficult to predict the situation,” Dr Pun added.
As of Monday, Nepal has recorded 261,859 COVID-19 cases, with 1,878 deaths.
“The number of cases was decreasing – which was certain. However, the recent series of protests is going to bring the next wave of COVID-19. People are gathering without observing the health safety protocols. With demonstrators gathering everywhere, Nepal will see a massive surge in the number of cases after a few weeks,” added Pun.
After President Bidya Devi Bhandari dissolved the Lower House of the federal parliament at the recommendation of the cabinet, protests have erupted in several parts of the country. The government has also announced dates for the midterm elections on April 30 and May 10.
“Even during the elections, mass gatherings and campaigns will help increase the number of cases,” he said, adding that the new strain of COVID-19 emerging from the United Kingdom is also a huge risk to the country.
The government has already imposed travel restrictions to and from the UK owing to a severe contagion of the new virus – which is said to be 70 percent more infectious. The new strain of the virus has already spread in more than 30 countries.
In the meantime, the health ministry said that the number of positive cases was slowly decreasing, however, the series of protests after latest political developments have increased the risk of the next wave of transmission. “The ministry is aware that the infection might increase. So, the ministry has already asked the COVID-19 Crisis Management Center (CCMC) to take necessary initiatives to stop protests,” Dr Roshan Pokharel, chief specialist at the Health Ministry told Republica a few days ago.
