Nepal has experienced significant changes in its demographic landscape over the past decade, as revealed by the recent national census data. The 2021 census shows that the urban population has reached 66.2 per cent, a significant increase from the 2011 census figure of 17.1 per cent. While this shift may seem like a positive trend, it raises concerns about the potential challenges that could arise from an excessive concentration of people in urban areas.
The census data shows that there are now slightly more than 19.29 million people living in urban areas in Nepal, compared to 9.86 million people living in rural areas. These figures are broken down by geographical regions, with the mountainous region having 35.6 percent of its population residing in urban areas and 64.4 per cent in rural areas. The hilly region has 63.3 per cent of its population residing in municipalities, while 36.7 per cent live in rural municipalities. In the Terai region, 71.8 per cent of the population is city dwellers, while 28.2 per cent live in rural areas.
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The average population growth rate during the census period is 0.92 per cent per year, which is lower than the 1.35 per cent recorded in the previous census. The average annual population growth in municipalities is 1.36 per cent, while it is 0.11 per cent in rural municipalities. The density of population per square kilometer has also increased from 180 in 2011 to 198 in 2021. The density of population in the municipality is 373 per square kilometer, while it is 105 per square kilometer in rural municipalities. These figures demonstrate the significant changes in Nepal's demographic landscape and highlight the need for careful consideration of the implications of an urban-centric population distribution.
One of the major concerns that arise from an excessive concentration of people in urban areas is the strain on resources. Urban areas have limited resources, such as water, food, and energy, which can quickly become exhausted when the population exceeds a certain threshold. While the arable land in rural areas remains barren, those living in urban areas are forced to stay idle, as there is a shortage of employment opportunities. This has eventually transformed Nepal into a country dependent on others even for basic food grains, an irony for an agricultural country. This can lead to shortages and higher prices, making it difficult for people to meet their basic needs. The increasing demand for resources could also result in environmental degradation, which could further exacerbate the problem.
Another issue that arises from an excessive concentration of people in urban areas is increased pollution. Urban areas tend to have higher levels of pollution than rural areas, due to factors such as traffic congestion, industrial activity, and population density. This can lead to a range of health problems, including respiratory diseases, cancer, and cardiovascular problems. Urban areas also tend to have higher crime rates than rural areas. This can make it difficult for people to feel safe and secure in their communities, and can lead to higher levels of anxiety and stress. The increased levels of crime in urban areas are often associated with poverty, social isolation, and drug abuse. The negative impact of an urban-centric population distribution on people's quality of life should not be ignored. In case of Nepal, this has had an impact on the delineation of constituencies for election as an area less than 20 percent has nearly 70 percent population. .
In light of these concerns, there is a need for policymakers and planners to carefully consider the implications of the shift towards an urban-centric population distribution. One possible approach is to promote development in rural areas to create more opportunities and improve the quality of life for people living in those areas. This could involve investing in infrastructure, such as roads, bridges, and public transportation, to connect rural areas to urban centers and make it easier for people to access services and job opportunities. The government should act before it is too late.
